Welcome to the June update. If you aren’t one of our Patreons, there’s been quite a bit of movement over the course of the month. With the Open Cup in full swing across the border, we’re also beginning to see leagues “drain” points off from one another, which has begun to shift the league averages. Here in Canada, the League1 Ontario Cup kicked off, as did the Pacific Coast Soccer League (PCSL), providing us with some movement at the bottom.
In the 2018-only ranking, the top-5 remain in the same order. With the noticeable exception of Ottawa Fury FC, all 5 of the top clubs have seen their elo ratings decrease throughout the month. Toronto dropped 20 points, Vancouver 10, Montreal plunged 35, and TFC II fell nearly 60 points. May was a harsh month for professional teams not in the nation’s capital. The Fury managed to fight their way up, gaining nearly 50 points and approaching USL’s starting average.
The PDL is split, with three teams competing in the same division (Pacific Northwest), that means three teams cannibalize each other for elo points. Despite this, the top-2 PDL sides, Calgary Foothills FC & TSS FC Rovers, are both from the same division. Given that, you would expect Victoria Highlanders Fc, the remaining side in that division to be at the bottom of the PDL, but WSA Winnipeg has worked hard to earn that dubious honour. Winnipeg has scored just 2 goals in 5 games, while letting 18 goals in the net.
League1 Ontario’s cup action has propelled TFC III to the top of the 3rd division, with Sigma, Blainville (PLSQ), and Oakville following close behind. This month’s cup matches saw all 3 newcomers (Darby, Unionville Milliken, and Alliance United) eliminated, which should allow them to focus on league plan during their introductory year. PLSQ teams have congregated around the middle, with the bottom of the 3rd division going to North Mississuaga, Toronto Skills, Dynamo de Quebec (PLSQ), and Windsor TFC.
Finally, in the PCSL, the ratings are still pretty tight with only a couple weeks of matches to go from. Kamloops and Vancouver sit top of the pack, while the Victoria Highlander Reserves and Mid Isle Mariners have dropped to the bottom.
In the cumulative ratings, things are very interesting. Thunder Bay Chill (PDL) will be playing their first match of the season this weekend. Currently, they are less than 3 elo points shy of overtaking Toronto FC II and moving into 5th overall. With the Young Reds allergic to winning, and with Thunder Bay’s hot streak last season, it is very likely we will see a jump. Calgary is a full 30-points behind Thunder Bay, which will make catching up on the Chill a substantial feat for the Foothills.
The other story here is the continued plunge of WSA Winnipeg. We mentioned it earlier in regards to the 2018-only ratings, however, their cumulative ratings are even worse. The team fared quite poorly last year, and with their 5-consecutive losses to start off the season, they’ve now plunged to 18th place, putting 8 L1O & PLSQ clubs above them in the ratings. Coincidentally, that’s like slapping a whole Canadian league between them and 9th-place Victoria Highlanders.
Oakville & Blainville remain top of the 3rd divisions. This will be increasingly interesting this upcoming Wednesday as the two sides meet in the Voyageurs Cup. The bottom 5 of the 3rd are Windsor TFC, Sanjaxx Lions, Aurora United, ProStars FC, and Toronto Skillz – all L1O clubs. These teams have earned a major deficit, and Toronto Skillz is only 30 points above PCSL’s Kamloops Wolfpack.
In my opinion, this lends additional strength to my claim that there should be a L2O, with promotion & relegation between the two leagues. Of course, I could have over-ranked the PCSL. This is also a possibility. I am fairly confident in my placement, but it wouldn’t be the first time I overestimated the Canadian leagues.
I alluded to movement in terms of league averages at the top of the article. The Champions League nudged the MLS up by a little over 6 points, to an average around 1405. In contrast, the Open Cup has caused the NPSL and PDL to both drop a point, while the USL’s dismal performance has pushed them down by a little over 3 points. With the MLS sides entering the competition, I expect there will be more adjustment to come. Additionally, as the Voyageur’s Cup kicks off next week, we’ll also see league averages shift for L1O and PLSQ, at a level more significant than we previously saw with the short-lived Interprovincial Cup.
There is a lot of soccer coming in June. If you want to keep on top of the elo rankings throughout the month, a $1/month donation through Patreon will give you weekly updates. All proceeds go toward keeping the site running, so it is a great cause. I’ll be back with a major elo-update around Canada Day. Until then, enjoy the Canadian Premier League revelations (including a Victoria team)!