With all teams, from all leagues, playing matches throughout May, we’ve seen a lot of movement all across the board. To add to the mayhem, both the Canadian Championship and the US Open Cup are causing points to shift between leagues, allowing for us a better picture how everyone fit together in the landscape.
Top by League & Biggest Movers
Due to an unbeaten streak across all competition, Cavalry FC but have moved to top of not only the CPL, but top of the ratings overall. Going 7-0-0 provided a large push, and toppling Pacific FC in the Canadian Championship really helped push the Cavs upward. I wouldn’t get especially excited about this leap as there are some pretty important caveats.
Montreal Impact FC continue to hold their top spot among the MLS squads, but have watched their rating slide as they go from 1421.100 at the beginning of the month, to 1402.521 at the end.
Throughout May, Cavalry FC increased their elo-rating the most, by a whopping 105.615 points. The 2nd highest increase is granted to 2nd-place Forge FC, who shot up 46.006, entirely due to league play. Vaughan Azzurri of League1 Ontario are 3rd, growing why 40.998 points.
The two largest drops were also found by CPL clubs, as Pacific FC tumbled 75.794 points and HFX Wanderers dropped 48.338. Toronto FC have also struggled in May, dropping 44.254 points and moving into 4th place behind Vancouver Whitecaps.
Voyageur’s Cup
Both Vaughan Azzuri and AS Blainville fought hard, but neither were able to advance to the 2nd round. Pacific FC were also thrown by the wayside as Cavalry marched on.
In the next round, HFX Wanderers are paired up against FC Edmonton, and York9 FC are matched up against Valour FC.
We’ll also see the two top CPL clubs (Forge & Cavalry) face off to see who will line up against Vancouver Whitecaps. In what may be an early precursor for the CPL Championship, this two-legged series will be the one to watch.
2019 CONCACAF League
We do not know who is representing CPL in the 2019 CONCACAF League. Forge FC are currently ahead in the race, however, FC Edmonton is still in the running. Valour FC, although technically not eliminated (yet), would need to win their remaining matches and rack up a pretty high GD in order to compete.
What we do know, is who the CPL will be facing in the preliminary round: Antigua GFC. Much like our CPL representative, this will be Antigua’s first appearance in the CONCACAF League, and should provide a good warm-up for what will likely be the CPL’s 2nd strongest side.
Assuming we’re able to defeat Antigua GFC, the Canadian-side will face a much more difficult challenge in the Round of 16: CD Olimpia. The “Honduras 2” position, where CD Olimpia are entering this competition, is 4th seed, whereas Canada 2 are an unknown in international competition. Honduras has traditionally been a major thorn in the side for the Canadian Men’s National Team, so it will be a challenge for our lads.
Elo Rating Cautions
Cavalry FC are top of the ratings, above all of the MLS teams. Does that mean Cavalry should defeat all the MLS teams and win the Canadian Championship? Although I’d love to see it happen, that’s not how elo ratings work.
There are a few places where I can openly find issues with elo-ratings. One of them is in the exaggeration of streaks. If you win a bunch in a row, you shoot up quickly, (and vice-versa as seen with 34th-place WSA Winnipeg’s 2-year winless streak) and that’s exactly what’s happened here.
Additionally, the CPL clubs can only really be compared to L1O & PLSQ (so far), as they haven’t been matched against the USL or MLS sides. I expect a lot of points correction to come once those matches occur in the Canadian Championship (which is why I gave CPL teams 1300-points at the start).
As it is, the CPL Average dropped slightly through the first round, moving to 1293.923, while L1O & PLSQ increased slightly. If everything were said and done now, any new CPL teams would start out at 1295, but I expect those points to drain further once matched up against Fury, Whitecaps, and Impact in the Voyageur’s Cup quarterfinals.
For now, we’ll have to live with a somewhat exaggerated rating from Cavalry as they trot across the competition.
Conclusion
May was a roller coaster full of surprises. With Cavalry FC shocking everyone with a 7-game winning streak that propelled them to the top of the ratings, aided in no small part by lackluster performances by the MLS sides, we have a heck of a lot of movement all over the board. June will see the next V-Cup legs, the determination of the CPL’s representative in the 2019 CONCACAF League, and a whole tonne of matches across the leagues.
We continue to have weekly updates for our $1+ Patreons, and will return with our big monthly update in August. Until then, let’s go enjoy some soccer.