One team to represent our country on the international stage. Toronto FC standing forth, winner of the Canadian Championship, ready to battle through to the finals once again… er… maybe not. With only one team competing in February, one would think there wouldn’t be too much to say. But tire fires love to burn…
Top by League & Biggest Movers
All seven CPL-Clubs start out tied at the top of the Canadian first division. AS Blainville and Vaughan Azzurri, the PLSQ & L1O entrants to the 2019 Canadian Championship, start out 2019 at the top of their divisions. Khalsa Sporting Club begin the year at the top of the PCSL, and have a long way to go in order to be overtaken by anyone in their division.
On the USSF-side, we have seen some movement thanks to some piss-poor performances by Toronto FC. As a result of a tire-fire of a loss & a draw at home against Independiente by the reds, Montreal Impact rise to the top. These losses make TFC the “biggest mover” of this update, having dropped all the way to 3rd.
With TFC choosing not to try in the Champions League, this will almost certainly give them an even bigger advantage in the Canadian Championship as they will be quite well rested when they enter in the semi-finals. If I were the CSA, I’d seriously be rethinking that advantage for the 2020 competition.
CONCACAF Champions League
Toronto FC bowed out of the Champions League early, so updates to the series will involve a lot of teams that aren’t of much interest to Canadians. I’ve included the updated radial for your interest, and will continue to do so at the end of each round. If you’re interested in knowing the exact numbers for the CCL team’s elo ratings, I publish updates following every leg through our Patreon.
Math Tweaks – 5 Leagues Affected
I encourage you to skip this section if you aren’t interested in how I calculate the ratings.
As we now have significantly more information, I’m better able to roll out the updates on some weightings and calculation changes, as they affect several leagues.
Canadian Premier League – Match Weights
|Championship – Game 1
|Championship – Game 2
First, the most important changes which affect the Canadian Premier League. The split-season format effectively creates 3 pieces of silverware: Spring Champion, Fall Champion, and CPL Champion. From what some of the clubs have revealed, the CPL Championship is a two-legged, home-and-away series. Additionally, the winner of the CPL Championship qualifies for the preliminary round of the CONCACAF League (CL).
CONCACAF League – 2019 Starting Points & Match Weights
With the CPL also having a spot in the CONCACAF League, I’ll need to setup & weigh that one as well. Moving forward, CCL & CL “spots” will carry-over their elo points. This mean that CRC1 will start the 2019 CL with the same number of points it ended the 2019 CONCACAF Champions League. I will use those “carry-over” clubs, plus the CPL club, find an average based upon their CL + CCL point totals, and use that to calculate starting elo for the remaining CL clubs, with 800 as the floor claimed by GUA3. This does mean we won’t know the exact starting points until sometime just before the competition starts in July, but it’s a quick calculation on the back-end.
|Prelim – Game 1
|Prelim – Game 2
|League – Game 1
|League – Game 2
|Final – Game 1
|Final – Game 2
Match weight will seem odd. I classified CL as a 0.5 Division league, as it is above national division 1, but below the Champions League. Additionally, I used the preliminary round as an entry qualifier round, and the remainder of the tournament as a CCL qualifier, since 6 teams will qualify for the 2020 CCL. Add in the home & away matches each round, and it looks a little funny.
CONCACAF Champions League – 2020 Starting Points
With ratings now carrying over from CCL to CL, it makes sense for the same to work in reverse: CL ratings will carry over to the 2020 CCL. I’ve very comfortable with how the CCL starting points came about this year, so I’m good with seeing those ratings carry forward.
Founders Cup & NISA Update
Outside of stuff that directly affects the rankings of Canadian Teams, we have a little more clarity on the Founders Cup. First, unless it’s a new team, the teams are all currently playing in NPSL (season started February 9th). As this is more of a “promotion” to a new division than starting a fresh franchise, I’ll just carry-over the existing team’s NPSL ratings to the Founders Cup. The few new teams will have their starting rating calculated as previously stated.
Additionally, we have confirmation that NISA will be launching with a winter season. Still no word on the exact format (or half of the teams), but it lends a lot more strength to my decision to utilize a year-round cumulative ratings system instead of an annual reset.
As the Founders Cup & NISA roll out more information about their competitions, I will continue to update the weights and starting points.
It’s still extremely early, so there couldn’t be too much movement in time for this update, as only 1 Canadian club has been attending professional matches. I wouldn’t say competing, but certainly attending.
All of the Canadian Clubs in MLS begin the regular MLS season on March 2nd, and Ottawa Fury of USL-C take their first kick of the ball on March 9th. Although USL-1 kicks off in March, Toronto FC II will have to wait until April, when most of the CSA-sanctioned leagues typically kick-off.
We will have weekly updates for our $1+ Patreons, and will return with our big monthly update in April. Until then, let’s go enjoy some soccer.